Perhaps it's irrational enthusiasm, but I have now moved Steele and Kean into the win columns over Cardin and Menendez. That would dramatically change Senate outcomes. Santorum, DeWine and Chafee all still look like losers, but wins in MD and NJ help offset that loss. I still think that Burns will pull out a squeaker in MT. VA is now secure for Allen and MO looks good for Talent. The net loss in the Senate could be as little as one! 54R/46D (actually 44 plus Lieberman and Saunders, the Independant Socialist from VT, but they will caucus and vote with the Dems on Senate organization).

That can't help but to translate to improved standing in House races. Michael Barone is predicting 16-19 Dem pick-ups, with is enough to make Bella Pelosi Speaker. I'm sticking with a Dem max pick-up of 14, and I think that's trending down to 12-10. Bush is campaigning for a key Indiana seat today in an area that's been good to the president; expect more of this kind of highly targeted campaigning in the last ten days.